Tinubu’s Economic Reforms: How Nigeria Stepped Out of the Woods in 2026

APC’s Felix Morka Declares Nigeria’s Economic Recovery Out of the Woods Under Tinubu

In a bold assertion that has ignited national conversation, the National Publicity Secretary of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Felix Morka, has declared that Nigeria has stepped out of the woods under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Speaking at a press briefing in Abuja on August 26, 2026, Morka emphasized that the economic reforms initiated by the Tinubu administration have positioned Nigeria on a path to sustainable growth, contrasting sharply with the challenges that defined the final years of the Muhammadu Buhari administration. This declaration comes amid growing public scrutiny of policy decisions and their real-time impact on the lives of Nigerians.

The timing of Morka’s statement is significant. It follows months of mixed economic signals—fluctuating inflation rates, currency adjustments, and policy recalibrations—that have left many citizens cautiously optimistic. While critics question the pace of recovery, supporters of the current administration point to structural changes in fiscal policy, foreign exchange management, and debt restructuring as evidence of a deliberate shift toward macroeconomic stability. The debate over Nigeria’s economic trajectory is not just about numbers; it reflects deeper questions about leadership, governance, and the country’s future. The journey out of the woods requires sustained effort to ensure these gains translate into tangible benefits for all Nigerians.

Morka’s characterization of Buhari’s presidency as a “stopgap” has further fueled political discourse. Was Buhari’s eight-year tenure merely a bridge to a more transformative era, or did missed opportunities leave Nigeria ill-prepared for global economic shocks? As the nation navigates this pivotal moment, the contrasting narratives of continuity and change are reshaping public expectations and political alliances.

From Crisis to Recovery: The Macroeconomic Turnaround in 2026

Since assuming office in May 2023, President Tinubu has pursued a series of economic reforms that have drawn both applause and criticism. Central to this agenda has been the removal of the fuel subsidy, a decision that sparked nationwide protests in 2023 but was defended as necessary to free up resources for critical infrastructure and social investment. By mid-2026, the impact of this policy is becoming clearer. Inflation, though still high, has shown signs of moderating, with headline inflation easing from over 33% in early 2025 to below 28% by August 2026. While food inflation remains a concern, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has implemented tighter monetary policies, including adjustments to the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), to curb speculative pressures and stabilize the naira. These reforms are key to ensuring Nigeria remains out of the woods and on a sustainable growth path.

The foreign exchange market has also undergone a significant transformation. The unification of the multiple exchange rates—once a major source of arbitrage and corruption—has improved transparency and reduced the gap between official and parallel market rates. The naira, which traded at over ₦1,600 to the dollar in early 2025, has stabilized around ₦1,400 by mid-2026, supported by increased foreign exchange earnings from non-oil sectors such as agriculture and technology. While some analysts argue that the gains are fragile, the direction of travel is undeniable: Nigeria is regaining investor confidence, albeit gradually, and moving decisively out of the woods.

Another key achievement cited by the Tinubu administration is the restructuring of Nigeria’s debt profile. Through strategic negotiations with international creditors and multilateral institutions, the government has secured moratoriums on some external debts and restructured domestic obligations to ease fiscal pressure. The Debt Management Office (DMO) reports that Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio has declined from 42.3% in 2024 to 38.7% in 2026, a milestone that has eased concerns about debt sustainability. However, skeptics caution that without corresponding growth in GDP and revenue, the debt burden remains a ticking time bomb. Stepping out of the woods requires balancing debt reduction with investments that drive long-term prosperity.

These macroeconomic adjustments have not occurred in isolation. They are part of a broader governance philosophy that prioritizes fiscal discipline, private sector-led growth, and institutional reforms. The Tinubu administration has also emphasized the need to reduce reliance on oil revenues by diversifying the economy. Initiatives such as the Presidential Economic Coordination Council (PECC) and the Nigeria Agenda 2050 blueprint aim to reposition Nigeria as a competitive player in global value chains, particularly in sectors like manufacturing, renewable energy, and digital services. Achieving this vision will ensure Nigeria not only steps out of the woods but thrives in a post-oil economy.

Was Buhari’s Presidency a Stopgap? Analyzing the Legacy

The characterization of former President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure as a “stopgap” by APC’s Felix Morka is a provocative one. It implies that Buhari’s administration was transitional—a period of stability, but not transformation. While Buhari’s presidency was marked by relative peace and continuity in governance, it also faced criticism for failing to address structural weaknesses in the economy, security challenges, and the erosion of public trust in institutions. The removal of fuel subsidies, for instance, was delayed until the very end of his tenure, leaving the next administration to manage the immediate fallout and chart a course out of the woods.

Supporters of Buhari argue that his administration inherited a deeply fractured economy from previous governments and had to navigate a global environment of rising interest rates, falling oil prices, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The Buhari years saw the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the launch of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation’s (NNPC) transformation, and efforts to improve power sector reforms. However, critics contend that these efforts were piecemeal and lacked the boldness required to reposition Nigeria for long-term prosperity. Without decisive steps, the economy risked remaining trapped in the woods indefinitely.

One of the most contentious legacies of the Buhari era is the nation’s debt profile. When Buhari assumed office in 2015, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at ₦12.6 trillion. By the time he left in 2023, it had ballooned to over ₦80 trillion—a more than sixfold increase. While part of this was due to necessary borrowing to fund infrastructure and cushion the effects of the pandemic, the lack of corresponding growth in revenue meant that debt servicing became a major strain on the national budget. The Buhari administration also struggled to implement critical reforms such as the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which only came into full effect in 2024, and the Electricity Act, which aims to decentralize the power sector but has yet to yield tangible results. These delays underscored the urgency of breaking free from the woods through bold, immediate action.

Security was another area where Buhari’s legacy remains contested. While the administration made gains in the fight against Boko Haram in the Northeast, other regions such as the Northwest and the Middle Belt witnessed escalating banditry, kidnappings, and communal clashes. The failure to secure the release of hundreds of schoolchildren kidnapped from Kankara, Chibok, and other communities left many Nigerians questioning the government’s commitment to protecting lives and property. These security challenges not only undermined development but also discouraged foreign investment and tourism, trapping the economy in a cycle of instability akin to being stuck in the woods. In contrast, the Tinubu administration has framed its approach as one of decisive action.

Public Reaction: Hope, Skepticism, and Political Polarization

The reaction to Morka’s declaration has been predictably divided. Supporters of the APC and the Tinubu administration have hailed the statement as a testament to the president’s vision and leadership. Social media platforms are awash with messages celebrating the “new Nigeria” narrative, with hashtags such as #TinubuMiracle and #NigeriaRising trending among youth and business communities. Pro-government media outlets have amplified the message, highlighting improvements in the ease of doing business, increased foreign direct investment (FDI) in sectors like technology and agriculture, and the successful hosting of major international conferences, including the 2026 Africa CEO Forum in Lagos. These developments signal that Nigeria is firmly on the path out of the woods.

However, opposition voices, including members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and civil society groups, have dismissed Morka’s claims as premature and politically motivated. They point to lingering challenges such as high unemployment—officially at 37% in 2026 but estimated to be much higher among young people—as evidence that the recovery is not yet inclusive. The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has continued to stage protests against the rising cost of living, arguing that the benefits of economic reforms have not trickled down to the average citizen. Critics also highlight the persistent issue of fuel shortages in some parts of the country, which they attribute to inefficiencies in the downstream petroleum sector despite the removal of subsidies. Ensuring no one is left behind on the journey out of the woods remains a critical challenge.

Economic analysts offer a more nuanced perspective. While acknowledging the positive direction of travel, they caution that Nigeria’s recovery remains fragile. The World Bank, in its June 2026 Nigeria Economic Update, noted that while growth is expected to average 3.2% in 2026, this is below the 6-7% required to significantly reduce poverty and unemployment. The report also highlighted risks such as global economic headwinds, climate change, and domestic policy inconsistencies. Analysts emphasize that for Nigeria’s economic recovery to be sustainable and inclusive, it must be accompanied by structural reforms in education, healthcare, and infrastructure, as well as a robust social protection system to cushion the impact on vulnerable populations. Only then can the country truly emerge from the woods.

The political dimension of the recovery debate cannot be ignored. With general elections scheduled for 2027, the Tinubu administration is under pressure to demonstrate tangible improvements in living standards. The opposition is already positioning itself to capitalize on any perceived failures, framing the current economic adjustments as a “shock therapy” that disproportionately affects the poor. Meanwhile, the APC is leveraging the narrative of recovery to consolidate its support base, particularly among business elites, professionals, and young Nigerians who are eager for change. The coming years will determine whether Nigeria’s steps out of the woods translate into lasting prosperity.

Infrastructure and Industrialization: The Pillars of Nigeria’s New Economic Vision

Central to the Tinubu administration’s economic recovery plan is a renewed focus on infrastructure development and industrialization. The government has committed to investing ₦20 trillion in critical infrastructure projects over the next five years, with a significant portion allocated to roads, railways, ports, and power generation. The Lagos-Ibadan standard gauge railway, which became operational in 2025, is often cited as a flagship project that has reduced travel time between Nigeria’s commercial capital and its hinterland, boosting trade and commerce. Similarly, the completion of the 2nd Niger Bridge in 2026 has eased transportation bottlenecks between the Southeast and other regions, a long-standing demand of the people. These projects are vital to ensuring Nigeria’s economy not only steps out of the woods but accelerates toward prosperity.

The administration has also prioritized the development of special economic zones (SEZs) and industrial parks to attract manufacturing investments. The Lekki Free Trade Zone in Lagos and the proposed Dangote Refinery complex in the Niger Delta are expected to serve as catalysts for local value addition and export growth. The government’s partnership with the private sector to revive moribund industries, such as the Ajaokuta Steel Company and the textile mills in Kaduna, is another step toward reducing import dependency and creating jobs. These initiatives align with the broader goal of achieving a $1 trillion economy by 2030, a target that, while ambitious, has gained traction among policymakers and investors. Moving Nigeria out of the woods requires building a robust industrial base.

However, challenges remain. Bureaucratic bottlenecks, corruption, and funding gaps continue to hamper the implementation of many projects. The recent audit of the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) revealed irregularities in fund management, raising questions about transparency and accountability in public expenditure. Additionally, the global shift toward green energy and sustainable development means that Nigeria must balance its industrialization drive with commitments to climate action. The government’s plan to leverage Nigeria’s vast gas reserves as a transition fuel is a step in this direction, but critics argue that it risks locking the country into a fossil-fuel-dependent economy at a time when the world is moving toward renewables. Stepping out of the woods sustainably demands a balanced approach.

Another critical area is power sector reform. Despite Nigeria’s abundant energy resources, electricity supply remains erratic, with an average of 4,000 megawatts (MW) generated daily against a demand of over 10,000 MW. The Tinubu administration has revived the National Integrated Electricity Planning and Implementation Task Force to fast-track the completion of ongoing power projects and attract private investment into the sector. The goal is to achieve 10,000 MW of operational capacity by 2027, a target that, if realized, would significantly boost industrial productivity and reduce the cost of doing business. However, the success of these efforts will depend on addressing issues such as gas supply constraints, transmission losses, and the financial viability of distribution companies (Discos). Reliable power is essential for Nigeria’s economy to fully emerge from the woods.

Agriculture and Food Security: Feeding Nigeria and Beyond

No discussion of Nigeria’s economic recovery is complete without addressing the agriculture sector, which employs over 36% of the workforce and contributes about 25% to the GDP. The Tinubu administration has launched the Renewed Hope Agriculture Programme, aimed at modernizing farming practices, improving access to credit, and boosting productivity. Key initiatives include the distribution of improved seedlings, the promotion of mechanized farming, and the establishment of agro-industrial hubs in each of Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones. The goal is to achieve self-sufficiency in staple crops such as rice, maize, and cassava while positioning Nigeria as a net exporter of agricultural products. These efforts are crucial to ensuring the economy not only steps out of the woods but achieves food security and reduces import dependence.

One of the most visible successes of this program has been the reduction in rice imports. Nigeria, once the world’s second-largest importer of rice, has slashed its import bill by over 60% since 2024, thanks to increased local production and the implementation of protective tariffs. The Anchor Borrowers’ Programme (ABP), which was relaunched in 2025 with stricter monitoring mechanisms, has also helped smallholder farmers access finance and inputs. However, challenges such as climate change, insecurity in farming communities, and poor rural infrastructure continue to undermine progress. The devastating floods of 2025, which affected over 3 million people and destroyed farmlands across 32 states, serve as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities in the agricultural sector. Overcoming these obstacles is key to Nigeria’s journey out of the woods.

The administration’s focus on agro-processing and value addition is another promising development. The establishment of cottage industries for the production of tomato paste, palm oil, and shea butter is not only creating jobs but also reducing post-harvest losses, which currently stand at 30-40% for some crops. The government’s partnership with the private sector to develop export-oriented agribusinesses, such as the proposed tomato processing plant in Kano, is expected to enhance Nigeria’s competitiveness in regional and global markets. These efforts align with the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and the AfCFTA, which aim to boost intra-African trade and reduce dependence on external markets. Diversifying the economy in this way is essential for Nigeria to fully step out of the woods.

Yet, the road to agricultural transformation is fraught with obstacles. Land tenure issues, inadequate storage facilities, and the dominance of middlemen in the value chain continue to stifle growth. The recent ban on the export of maize and other grains to stabilize domestic prices has sparked debate about the balance between food security and trade. While the policy aims to protect local consumers, it has also raised concerns about the impact on farmers who rely on exports for income. These tensions highlight the need for a holistic approach that addresses not just production but also market access, infrastructure, and policy coherence. Only then can Nigeria’s agricultural sector contribute fully to stepping out of the woods.

Youth Empowerment and Digital Economy: The Future of Nigeria’s Workforce

With over 60% of Nigeria’s population under the age of 25, the youth demographic is both a challenge and an opportunity. The Tinubu administration has recognized that harnessing this demographic dividend is critical to achieving sustainable growth. The Renewed Hope Job Creation Programme, launched in 2025, aims to create 5 million jobs annually through targeted interventions in sectors such as technology, agriculture, and creative industries. The government has also partnered with global tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Flutterwave to upskill Nigerian youth in digital literacy, software development, and entrepreneurship. These initiatives are part of a broader strategy to transition Nigeria from a consumption-based economy to a knowledge-based one and ensure the youth are not left behind on the path out of the woods.

The digital economy, in particular, has emerged as a bright spot in Nigeria’s recovery story. The country’s tech ecosystem, valued at over $10 billion in 2026, is one of the fastest-growing in Africa. Startups such as Andela, Flutterwave, and Paystack have not only created thousands of jobs but have also attracted significant foreign investment. The government’s decision to grant licenses to new telecom operators and expand broadband penetration to 70% by 2027 is expected to further boost digital inclusion. The Nigeria Startup Act, enacted in 2022, has provided a legal framework for innovation, offering tax incentives and grants to tech entrepreneurs. These efforts have positioned Nigeria as a hub for African tech, with Lagos often referred to as the “Silicon Valley of Africa.” Investing in the digital economy is a strategic move to ensure Nigeria’s youth are equipped to drive the country out of the woods and into the future.

However, the digital divide remains a significant issue. While urban centers like Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt enjoy high internet penetration, rural areas lag behind due to poor infrastructure and affordability challenges. The government’s plan to deploy 5G networks nationwide by 2027 is a step toward bridging this gap, but the success of this initiative will depend on collaboration with the private sector and effective regulation to prevent monopolistic practices. Additionally, the rise of digital fraud and cybercrime poses a threat to the growth of the tech ecosystem. The recent establishment of the Nigeria Cybersecurity Agency (NCSA) is a positive development, but more needs to be done to build trust and security in the digital space. Ensuring a safe and inclusive digital economy is vital for Nigeria’s economic transformation out of the woods.

For many young Nigerians, the promise of the digital economy offers a lifeline in an economy where formal job creation has struggled to keep pace with population growth. The proliferation of gig economy platforms, freelance marketplaces, and remote work opportunities has provided alternative income streams for millions. However, the lack of social safety nets and the informal nature of many digital jobs mean that economic shocks can still have devastating effects. The government’s focus on entrepreneurship and vocational training is a welcome development, but it must be accompanied by policies that protect workers and ensure fair labor practices in the digital age. Only then can the digital economy help Nigeria fully emerge from the woods.

The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities for Nigeria in 2027

As Nigeria charts its course toward economic recovery and growth, the challenges ahead are as daunting as the opportunities are promising. The global economic environment remains uncertain, with rising geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and the looming threat of climate change. Nigeria’s ability to navigate these headwinds will depend on the coherence of its policies, the strength of its institutions, and the inclusivity of its growth model. The Tinubu administration’s emphasis on diversification, industrialization, and digital transformation is a step in the right direction, but the journey is far from over. Stepping out of the woods requires navigating these challenges with resilience and strategic foresight.

One of the most pressing challenges is the need to address the structural imbalances in the economy. Nigeria’s over-reliance on oil revenues has left the country vulnerable to external shocks. The government’s push to develop non-oil sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and services is commendable, but it will require sustained investment, innovation, and political will. The recent partnership with the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) to establish a $1 billion Nigeria-Africa Trade and Investment Promotion Programme (NATIPP) is a positive development, but more needs to be done to integrate Nigeria into regional and global value chains. Diversifying the economy is essential for Nigeria to not only step out of the woods but thrive in a post-oil future.

Another critical issue is the need for social cohesion and national unity. Nigeria’s diversity is its strength, but it is also a source of tension and conflict. The government’s commitment to inclusive governance, dialogue, and the implementation of the 2014 National Conference report is essential to fostering a sense of shared purpose among Nigeria’s diverse ethnic, religious, and regional groups. The recent establishment of the Ministry of National Coordination is a step toward addressing the centrifugal forces that threaten the country’s stability. However, the success of this initiative will depend on its ability to deliver tangible benefits to all Nigerians, regardless of their background. Unity and stability are prerequisites for Nigeria to fully step out of the woods.

Looking ahead to 2027, the political landscape will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of Nigeria’s recovery. With general elections on the horizon, the temptation to prioritize short-term populist policies over long-term structural reforms will be strong. The opposition parties, including the PDP and the Labour Party (LP), are already positioning themselves as alternatives to the APC, with a focus on issues such as job creation, security, and social welfare. The outcome of the elections will determine whether Nigeria continues on its current path of reform or reverts to policies of the past. For the sake of the country’s future, it is imperative that the elections are free, fair, and credible, and that the winners are committed to building a Nigeria that works for all. The path out of the woods must be guided by inclusive and forward-looking leadership.

The debate over Nigeria’s economic recovery is far from settled. While the Tinubu administration can point to tangible progress in areas such as foreign exchange stability, debt restructuring, and infrastructure development, the ultimate test will be whether these gains translate into improved living standards for the average Nigerian. The journey out of the woods is a long and arduous one, and the road ahead is fraught with obstacles. But if the current trajectory is sustained, Nigeria may well emerge as a beacon of hope and resilience in a continent often beset by challenges. The question is not whether Nigeria can recover, but how quickly and inclusively it can do so. The answer will define the country’s place in the world for decades to come.

FAQs About Nigeria’s Economic Recovery Under Tinubu

1. What does it mean for Nigeria to have “come out of the woods” economically?

   When APC’s Felix Morka says Nigeria has stepped out of the woods, he means the country has moved past the worst phase of its economic crisis. This includes stabilizing the naira, reducing inflation, improving foreign exchange liquidity, and laying the groundwork for sustainable growth. It does not imply that all problems are solved, but that the economy is on a recovery path and no longer in a state of crisis.

2. How has the removal of fuel subsidies impacted Nigeria’s economy in 2026?

   The removal of fuel subsidies in mid-2023 was a key policy under President Tinubu. While it initially caused inflation and public outrage, it has led to significant savings for the government, which is now being reinvested into infrastructure, social programs, and debt reduction. The impact on the average Nigerian remains mixed, with higher transport and food costs offset by improved availability of foreign exchange and reduced corruption in subsidy distribution. These reforms have been crucial to steering Nigeria out of the woods.

3. Is Nigeria’s economic recovery inclusive? Who is benefiting the most?

   While macroeconomic indicators show improvement, the recovery is not yet fully inclusive. Urban centers, particularly Lagos and Abuja, are seeing more visible benefits from infrastructure projects, tech investments, and job creation in digital sectors. Rural areas and vulnerable populations, such as farmers and low-income workers, are still grappling with high food prices, unemployment, and limited access to social services. The government’s social investment programs, such as the Renewed Hope Job Creation Programme, aim to address these gaps, but their impact is still unfolding. Ensuring the recovery lifts all Nigerians is essential to truly stepping out of the woods.

Source

This article references the statement by APC National Publicity Secretary Felix Morka on Nigeria’s economic recovery. For further reading, see: Naija News – Tinubu Out of the Woods, Buhari a Stopgap President – Morka

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