Tinubu’s Policies Push Nigeria’s Middle Class Toward Poverty

Peter Ameh’s recent column warns that the Tinubu middle class is slipping into beggary as inflation, soaring living costs and dwindling public services erode the purchasing power of millions of Nigerians. The claim echoes a United Nations report released earlier this year, which highlighted that deprivations now extend beyond low‑income households to include health, education, housing and clean water deficits across the nation.

Why the middle class matters for Nigeria’s future

The middle class has traditionally been the engine of growth in emerging economies. In Nigeria, it fuels consumer demand, supports small‑and‑medium enterprises, and supplies a skilled workforce for the private sector. When this segment shrinks, tax revenues fall, domestic consumption stalls, and social stability weakens.

Since President Bola Tinubu took office in 2023, macro‑economic indicators have shown mixed signals. While some reforms aim to attract foreign investment, the reality on the ground for many households tells a different story. The UN’s 2026 Human Development Review notes that 42 % of Nigerians now experience at least one form of basic deprivation, up from 35 % in 2022.

Policy choices that have strained household budgets

Several of Tinubu’s policy moves have directly impacted the cost of living. The removal of fuel subsidies in early 2024 led to a 30 % jump in diesel prices, which in turn raised transport fares and the price of goods that rely on road logistics. Simultaneously, the administration’s decision to increase the value‑added tax (VAT) from 7.5 % to 10 % in mid‑2025 added another layer of pressure on everyday expenses.

Housing costs have also surged. The Federal Mortgage Bank’s new interest rate ceiling of 15 %—intended to curb reckless lending—has made home loans less affordable for first‑time buyers. As a result, many middle‑income families are forced to rent at rates that consume up to 40 % of their monthly income, a level the UN flags as a housing affordability crisis.

Health and education: the silent erosion

Access to quality health care has deteriorated as public hospitals grapple with funding shortfalls. Out‑of‑pocket spending now accounts for 68 % of total health expenditure, according to the Ministry of Health’s 2026 fiscal report. For a middle‑class family, a single hospital admission can wipe out weeks of earnings.

Education costs have followed a similar trajectory. Tuition fees at private secondary schools have risen by an average of 12 % annually since 2023, while the government’s allocation to public schools remains stagnant at 3 % of the national budget. Parents report that they are either pulling children out of school or resorting to informal tutoring, which adds hidden costs.

Regional comparisons: a continent‑wide challenge

Nigeria is not alone in witnessing a shrinking middle class. Across Africa, Ghana and Kenya have reported comparable trends, with the World Bank noting a 5 % decline in middle‑income households between 2022 and 2025. South Africa’s middle class, however, has shown resilience thanks to stronger social safety nets and a more diversified economy.

These patterns suggest that policy environments, rather than global shocks alone, shape the fate of the middle class. Countries that have paired fiscal reforms with targeted subsidies for health, education and housing have managed to protect vulnerable earners.

What the UN report says about the broader impact

The United Nations’ 2026 assessment stresses that when middle‑class families lose their economic footing, the ripple effects touch every sector. Reduced consumer spending depresses retail sales, while lower tax contributions strain public budgets. Moreover, the psychological toll—rising anxiety and reduced trust in institutions—can fuel social unrest.

In Nigeria, recent protests in Lagos and Abuja over rising living costs illustrate this growing discontent. While the government attributes the unrest to “external economic pressures,” many activists point to domestic policy choices as the root cause.

Possible pathways forward

Addressing the crisis requires a multi‑pronged approach. First, re‑introducing targeted fuel subsidies for public transport could lower commuting costs without compromising fiscal discipline. Second, a graduated VAT structure that exempts essential goods would protect low‑ and middle‑income consumers.

On the housing front, expanding the National Housing Fund’s low‑interest loan scheme could help families purchase homes without excessive debt. In health, scaling up the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) to cover a larger share of the population would reduce out‑of‑pocket spending.

Education reforms should focus on increasing public school funding and incentivising private schools to offer scholarship programmes for middle‑income families. Such measures would help preserve the pipeline of skilled workers essential for Nigeria’s long‑term competitiveness.

Public sentiment and the road ahead

Surveys conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics in early 2026 reveal that 61 % of respondents feel “worse off” compared to 2023, with the middle class expressing the highest levels of dissatisfaction. This sentiment is reflected in the growing popularity of opposition parties that promise “economic relief” and “middle‑class revival.”

While political cycles will inevitably shape policy direction, the urgency of the situation demands immediate, evidence‑based interventions. Failure to act could see the middle class contract further, eroding the social contract that underpins Nigeria’s democratic experiment.

FAQ

• What specific policies have impacted the middle class the most? The removal of fuel subsidies, the increase in VAT, and tighter mortgage interest rates are the primary drivers of higher living costs.
• How does Nigeria’s middle‑class decline compare with other African nations? While Ghana and Kenya face similar challenges, South Africa’s stronger social safety nets have mitigated the impact, highlighting the role of policy design.
• What immediate steps can the government take? Re‑introducing targeted fuel subsidies, adjusting VAT on essential items, expanding low‑interest housing loans, and scaling up health insurance coverage are practical short‑term measures.

For a deeper dive into the UN findings, see the full report here.

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