Tinubu Security Expectations: If Buhari Couldn’t End Insecurity, What Can We Expect in 2026?

When former President Muhammadu Buhari, a retired general, left office in 2023 without eradicating Nigeria’s spiralling insecurity, the public’s confidence in the nation’s security apparatus was already frayed. In 2026, the question reverberates louder than ever: Tinubu security expectations have become the litmus test for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s ability to restore safety and stability. This article dissects the legacy of Buhari’s security policies, evaluates Tinubu’s early moves, and outlines realistic expectations for the current administration as it navigates a complex security landscape.

Why Buhari’s Record Matters for Tinubu Security Expectations

Understanding Tinubu’s security expectations begins with a clear picture of Buhari’s tenure. As a former army chief, Buhari entered the presidency with a promise to combat banditry, insurgency, and kidnapping. Yet, by the end of his two terms, the nation still faced rampant attacks in the North‑East, the rise of Fulani herders‑farmer clashes in the Middle Belt, and a surge in urban kidnappings. Analysts attribute this shortfall to several factors: limited intelligence coordination, under‑funded police forces, and a fragmented approach among the army, police, and security agencies.

These shortcomings set a high bar for Tinubu. The public now expects not just a continuation of past policies but a transformative shift that can finally curb the violence that has plagued the country for over a decade.

Tinubu’s First 100 Days: Signals and Set‑backs

President Tinubu’s administration launched a series of initiatives within his first 100 days that signal a new direction. The most notable is the establishment of the National Security Council (NSC) task force, tasked with synchronising efforts between the army, police, and newly created Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) units. The task force also introduced a real‑time incident reporting app, aiming to bridge the gap between communities and security agencies.

However, early implementation has faced challenges. Technical glitches in the app have limited its reach in rural areas where internet connectivity is weak. Moreover, the rapid recruitment of CJTF volunteers has raised concerns about training standards and accountability, echoing past criticisms of community‑based security groups.

Regional Dynamics: Lessons from Ghana, Kenya and South Africa

While Nigeria wrestles with its internal security woes, neighbouring countries offer instructive case studies. Ghana’s recent success in curbing illegal mining and associated violence stemmed from a robust inter‑agency task force that combined police, customs, and the Ghana Armed Forces under a unified command. Kenya, on the other hand, has invested heavily in intelligence‑led policing, particularly in tackling the “Mungiki” gangs in Nairobi, resulting in a measurable decline in violent crime.

South Africa’s experience with community policing forums illustrates both the potential and pitfalls of involving civilians in security. Where these forums are well‑funded and supervised, they have helped reduce petty crime; where they lack oversight, they risk becoming parallel power structures.

These examples suggest that Tinubu’s security expectations should be calibrated to include stronger inter‑agency coordination, investment in intelligence technology, and stringent oversight of community‑based forces.

Economic Realities: Funding Security in a Tight Fiscal Environment

Security spending in Nigeria has historically been a substantial portion of the federal budget, yet inefficiencies have diluted its impact. In 2026, the national budget allocates 12% to defence and internal security, but the real challenge lies in transparent disbursement. Corruption scandals involving procurement of equipment for the police have eroded public trust.

To meet Tinubu security expectations, the administration must adopt a results‑based budgeting approach, linking funds to measurable outcomes such as reduced kidnapping incidents or lower homicide rates. Partnerships with the private sector, especially fintech firms that can provide secure payment channels for officers, could also enhance fiscal accountability.

Human Rights and Community Trust: Balancing Force with Dialogue

Any discussion of Tinubu security expectations must address the delicate balance between robust security operations and respect for human rights. Past operations, particularly in the North‑East, have been criticised for heavy‑handed tactics that alienated local populations. Building trust requires a shift towards community‑oriented policing, where officers engage with local leaders, religious figures, and youth groups.

Programs such as the “Youth Empowerment and Security Initiative” (YESI), launched in early 2026, aim to provide vocational training to at‑risk youths in conflict‑prone zones. Early reports indicate a modest drop in recruitment into bandit groups, suggesting that social interventions can complement kinetic operations.

Technology as a Force Multiplier

In the digital age, technology is a critical lever for improving security outcomes. Tinubu’s administration has partnered with local tech hubs in Abuja and Lagos to develop drone surveillance for remote border areas, and AI‑driven analytics to predict hotspots of bandit activity. While still in pilot phases, these tools promise to enhance situational awareness and reduce response times.

Nevertheless, the success of these technologies hinges on reliable data collection, skilled operators, and clear legal frameworks governing privacy and data use. The recent passage of the Data Protection Bill in 2025 provides a foundation, but further regulations specific to security data are needed.

International Cooperation: Leveraging Regional and Global Partnerships

Nigeria’s security challenges are not confined within its borders. Cross‑border insurgency, illicit arms trafficking, and organized crime networks require coordinated regional responses. Tinubu has signalled a willingness to deepen cooperation with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union’s Peace and Security Council.

Joint training exercises with the Ghanaian army and joint maritime patrols with the Nigerian Navy and Senegalese Coast Guard are already underway, targeting piracy in the Gulf of Guinea. These collaborations reinforce the notion that Tinubu security expectations must extend beyond domestic policy to include robust diplomatic engagement.

Public Sentiment and the Role of Media

Public opinion remains a powerful driver of security policy. In 2026, social media platforms such as Twitter and Nairaland have become hotbeds for security discourse, with citizens demanding transparency and swift action. Traditional media outlets continue to investigate and report on security lapses, holding officials accountable.

For Tinubu, maintaining an open line of communication—through regular press briefings, town‑hall meetings, and digital dashboards showing crime statistics—will be essential to managing expectations and demonstrating progress.

FAQ

• Q: What are the realistic Tinubu security expectations for 2026‑2027? A: Expect incremental improvements through better coordination, technology adoption, and community engagement, rather than an immediate eradication of all security threats.
• Q: How does Tinubu’s approach differ from Buhari’s? A: Tinubu emphasises data‑driven policing, public‑private partnerships, and regional cooperation, whereas Buhari relied heavily on military deployments.
• Q: Will the new security app reach rural communities? A: The app’s success depends on expanding mobile network coverage and providing offline reporting mechanisms for areas with limited connectivity.

In conclusion, the legacy of Buhari’s inability to fully eliminate insecurity sets a sobering benchmark for Tinubu. While the challenges are formidable, the administration’s early reforms—if executed with transparency, community involvement, and strategic use of technology—can reshape the security narrative for Nigeria. The public’s patience may be thin, but realistic Tinubu security expectations grounded in measurable outcomes offer a pathway to gradual, sustainable peace.

For further reading, see the original commentary by Yari on Linda Ikeji’s Blog: If Buhari, a retired general, could not wipe out insecurity, what do you expect of Tinubu? – Yari.

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